Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. 2015). Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. 2013; Pingale et al. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. Another study by Di Falco et al. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). 2002; Suryavanshi et al. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. 2014; Kishore et al. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. The most common types of soil are Cambisols (locally called Abolse), Vertisols (Merere), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. Previous Topic. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. 3. 2013; Irannezhad et al. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. As already explained. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. 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